2012 Will Tell Us All We Need to Know About Derek Dooley

2012 schedule

Sept. 1 - NC State (Atlanta)

Sept. 8 - Georgia State

Sept. 15 - Florida

Sept. 22 - Akron

Sept. 29 - at Georgia

Oct. 6 - Open

Oct. 13 - at Mississippi State

Oct. 20 - Alabama

Oct. 27 - at South Carolina

Nov. 3 - Troy

Nov. 10 - Missouri

Nov. 17 - at Vanderbilt

Nov. 24 - Kentucky

That's it. That is what Derek Dooley and Tennessee have in front of them in 2012. That is the schedule which more than likely will determine the fate of Derek Dooley and the fate of the Tennessee program over the coming years. As I said yesterday, I believe Derek Dooley caught his first and only really great break since he has been the head coach for the Vols when the SEC dropped Arkansas - a team that beat Tennessee by 40 last year - off of the schedule and replaced them with Missouri. (In typical Dooley and Tennessee fashion however, prosperity would not last more than a few hours as promising young wide receiver, D'Anthony Arnett has asked Tennessee for a release CLICK ) 

When you look at the schedule 9 months from kickoff it appears to be the "easiest" that Tennessee has had in at least a decade. There are more than likely 9 games that Tennessee will be favored in, in my opinion. (NC State, Georgia St, Florida, Akron, Miss St, Troy, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt) When you look at the roster that Tennessee is returning, no longer is youth, inexperience and depth a concern. By my count, the Vols return 10 starters on offense, 9 starters on defense and both kicker and punter. If you want to get really technical you could call Marlin Lane a starter at the running back position and add returning Herman Lathers - who started as a freshman and sophomore - as a starter at linebacker. So theoretically, the Vols return 23 of 24 starters even though some of those players who started in 2011 will not start in 2012 I look at that as a positive. Tennessee finally has experienced depth and versatility. 

So what does this mean? A manageable schedule combined with a talented and experienced roster means that Derek Dooley should win. If he does not win, he is not capable of winning. When you look at the combination of his roster and the schedule he should win 9 games. If he is a quality coach, he wins 9 games. If he is a coach who is capable of winning an SEC championship at Tennessee...he wins 9 games. In my opinion, I don't think any coach that has ever won an SEC Championship since the league went to divisional play would win less than 9 games with that roster against that schedule. Name whoever you want. Richt, Fulmer, Spurrier, Chizik, Tubberville etc. You put any of those guys coaching this Tennessee team in 2012 and they win  AT LEAST 9. If Dooley wants to prove he is capable of accomplishing what those guys did, he needs to do it too. 

Some will say 'but Florida can beat Tennessee' or 'NC State can beat Tennessee' or 'Missouri can beat Tennessee' All of which is true. All of these teams as well as some others are capable of beating Tennessee....but that is the point. A quality coach, a championship caliber coach, would not get beat by those teams. Beating those teams is what makes you a good coach. Eventually, you have to win. 

If Derek Dooley can win at least 9 of those games it means that there is a good chance he has what it takes to win here. If Derek Dooley does not get to 9 wins, in my opinion, it means he is not capable of winning an SEC Championship. Since winning an SEC Championship is the goal at Tennessee and what he was hired to do, if Derek Dooley does not get to 9 wins his failure is ineveitable. Does that mean you fire him if he doesn't win 9 in the regular season? That's a tough call and one that would depend on how the season played out. Either way, to me, you would just be delaying the inevitable at that point. 

2012. That roster. That schedule. This coach. I will know all I need to know by December.